Apr 07 2016

Who’s Cloud is it Anyway: A Look into the Future

My current favorite writer is a gentleman by the name of George Friedman. He writes about Geopolitics and makes bold predictions about the world from his view point. Today, I want to take a shot at a 10 year prediction for IT. Some things are obvious, like the reduction in MPLS, but I want to make bold predictions about the world I live in, telecommunications and IT.

One thing that happened this week that hit home for me was the last PlayStation 2 online server was shut down. The PlayStation 2 was released in 2000. A 15 year life cycle for a technology such a PlayStation 2 is about average. We can look across current technologies and ball park where they will be in a future state. So let’s peer into the future and guess what 2025 will look like:

– Hard Phones will be overtaken by Cell Phones for office use

– VPN will evolve into biometric/smart connectivity instead of logins (username/password)

– Wireless will be emitted by lighting fixtures instead of physical adapters

– Internet will be accessible via MicroWave at 6G+ speeds in major cities (1Gb+ downloads)

– Server environments will begin to move back towards the individual organization

The first 4 are predictions I am fairly positive will occur. The last prediction is the one I want to elaborate on. The lifecycle of the computer has been an interesting one. Initially main frames and centralized computing were necessary to concentrate compute resources. Once Intel began creating small form factor chips with larger computation power the PC began rise with companies like Dell, Microsoft, and even Gateway jumping on the opportunity.

What’s interesting here has been the 2000s movement back towards a mainframe model. However, now it is called Cloud because it sits in large data centers off client premises. Cloud has become all the rave in IT discussions but I have seen a product begin to gain traction that could begin the change back to the premise/personal computing model: Hyper-convergence. This is a single vendor box that is completely ready to act as a cloud environment for an organization. While it is in its infancy from a product standpoint, it symbolizes a movement I foresee.

My prediction is that hyper-convergence will evolve into an on premise cloud solution that is small in form factor, cheap, and highly successful from a stability standpoint. This is very similar to the evolution that the PC made over the mainframe computer. Instead of having stacks and stacks of SAN and Servers to achieve the Processors, RAM, and Storage necessary to run a network, I believe this will be a small simple box with everything necessary including DR.

Let me know if you think my predictions have any legs. Future technology is one of my favorite topics because it can be so philosophical. Who in the 1960s would have ever thought a device as sophisticated as our modern cell phones would have existed? I hope everyone has a great week and here’s to hoping for another week without outages.

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